000 AXNT20 KNHC 171157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON NOV 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. WE HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING THIS WAVE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND UP AGAINST THE COAST OF GUYANA AND VENEZUELA A FEW DAYS AGO. THIS WAVE PASSED OVER COASTAL VENEZUELA YESTERDAY...AND IT WAS QUITE WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS LATE AS 16/1915 UTC. IT IS SPREADING SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W...AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA TO 13N BETWEEN 66W AND 72W NORTH OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. CURACAO REPORTED 0.93 INCHES OF RAIN ENDING AT 17/0000 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N12W 5N23W 7N40W 8N53W 8N61W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 12N BETWEEN 13W AND 50W...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ON THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE U.S.A. EAST OF 100W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SMALL AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ENTERING THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND MERGING WITH THE COMPARATIVELY MORE DOMINANT CYCLONIC FLOW. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE U.S.A. EAST OF 100W SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N65W TO CUBA NEAR 20N75W AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N75W TO 18N80W TO EASTERN HONDURAS TO SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS. THIS POSITION HAS BEEN MOVED COMPARATIVELY WAY TO THE EAST WITH RESPECT TO THE 17/0000 UTC POSITION IN ORDER TO AGREE MORE WITH THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 77W AND 86W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED ALSO TO THE 16N74W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND SOME IS RELATED ONLY TO THE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF 80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 70W AND 83W UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMPARATIVELY MORE DOMINANT THAN THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 16N74W CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 77W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THE SURFACE 65W/66W TROPICAL WAVE...EAST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N65W TO 26N70W TO CUBA NEAR 20N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 20N75W IN SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 25N71W 28N67W BEYOND 32N63W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 26N36W 19N40W AND 15N48W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N30W 29N30W 25N32W TO 19N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 29W AND 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 18W/19W FROM 10N TO 30N. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 21N63W TO 27N578W BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 32N30W 19N40W TROUGH FROM 15N30W TO 24N23W BEYOND 32N20W. $$ MT