000
AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N30W 10N50W 10N62W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST 
OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 9W-11W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 15W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 35W-37W...AND NEAR TRINIDAD 
FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 58W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1031 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SE TEXAS NEAR 30N97W PRODUCING 
10-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. 
STRONGEST WINDS ARE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA E OF 82W. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG N SURFACE WINDS ARE 
BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN STORM 
FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. BROKEN TO OVERCAST COLD AIR 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE GULF S OF 28N. SIMILAR 
CLOUDS HAVE MOVED S FROM THE GULF TO W CUBA AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...WHILE FLORIDA AND THE OTHER GULF COAST STATES REMAIN 
CLOUD FREE WITH FAIR SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 
90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...SURFACE 
COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS PRODUCING 
CONTINUED COOL WEATHER OVER THE AREA. FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURE 
FOR MIAMI TONIGHT IS 54F.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE 
GULF OF HONDURAS ALONG 22N80W 19N86W 16N88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO INCLUDE W CUBA... 
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N66W 9N66W MOVING W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 62W-70W TO 
INCLUDE THE ABC ISLANDS. FRESH TRADES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 
69W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO N NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF THE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM E CUBA TO NE NICARAGUA IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED 
CONVECTION OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA 
NEAR 22N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO N OF 30N BETWEEN 65W-69W. 
A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 
40W-65W. A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N32W. A 
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N32W 21N39W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-75W. A 
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. 
ZONAL FLOW IS E OF 30W. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC AND EXTEND FROM 30N64W TO E CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

$$
FORMOSA