000
AXNT20 KNHC 161203
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N10W 7N21W 9N48W 8N62W INTO NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEASTERN 
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W...FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 
24W AND 40W...FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 50W...AND FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS NOW PASSES THROUGH
SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
25N80W JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...TO THE NORTHERN 
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N93W. 
DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE 
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE 
COAST OF CUBA NORTHEASTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE SOUTH OF 21N 
WEST OF 93W. STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC NOW AND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...APPEARING TO BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
DOMINANT. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR
17N72W...AND ANOTHER ONE IS NEAR 13N75W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS 
APPARENT EVERYWHERE EAST OF 83W. A BIT OF UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS CUTTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM THE ISLANDS
TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 66W IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. ISOLATED AND 
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 83W...AND NEAR GREAT INAGUA AND LITTLE
INAGUA. THE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE OF THE LAST 24 HOURS
WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ANALYSIS FOR 16/0600 UTC BECAUSE IT WAS
NOT APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. THAT 
DOES NOT MEAN THAT IT HAS DISAPPEARED. ISOLATED TO WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
AREA FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. SOME HINTS
OF CYCLONIC TURNING ARE PRESENT...EVEN OVER NORTHEASTERN COASTAL
VENEZUELA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
25N80W JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST. SCATTERED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 71W AND 
73W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
FROM GREAT INAGUA ISLAND TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W. AN UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 63W/64W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
32N39W TO 27N40W 24N44W AND 16N52W. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE 
CENTER IS NEAR 32N32W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER
TO 22N40W. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW AND SLIGHT DEEPENING
OF THE 30N33W LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 
PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES IN THE AREA OF 
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 
24N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 24N69W BEYOND
32N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 
20N WEST OF THE 32N32W 22N40W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE 
EAST OF THE 32N32W 22N40W TROUGH FROM 22N29W TO 28N24W BEYOND 
32N21W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 19N64W 
22N35W 23N22W 23N14W.

$$
MT