000
AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
9N13W 6N24W 8N40W 9N55W INTO GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 9N60W.

SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 8N18W 6N22W 5N26W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N52W 12N57W 13N60W. DISORGANIZED 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 13N EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH OF 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED FROM THE CENTRAL 
U.S.A. INTO THE EASTERN U.S.A. INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN TO 28N81W IN FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO
24N86W TO JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N93W. DRY AIR 
IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL THE PRECIPITATION 
WITH THIS FRONT IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE COAST OF CUBA 
NORTHEASTWARD. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WEST OF 90W. STORM FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...APPEARING TO BE COMPARATIVELY MORE 
DOMINANT. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NOW IS NEAR 13N75W. 
CYCLONIC FLOW IS APPARENT EVERYWHERE EAST OF 83W. ISOLATED AND
DISORGANIZED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 83W...AND ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE 
OF CUBA TO 23N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W. THE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL 
WAVE OF 24 HOURS AGO NOW IS ALONG 61W/62W FROM 8N TO 14N...
MOVING THROUGH THE ISLANDS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 
INTO VENEZUELA. DISORGANIZED ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 
28N81W IN FLORIDA JUST NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM 24N74W NEAR 
SAN SALVADOR TO 27N73W 30N73W BEYOND 33N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG 64W/65W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W 
TO 27N40W 22N43W AND 17N51W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N32W 
TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N33W. A TROUGH CONTINUES 
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N40W. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A SLOW AND 
SLIGHT DEEPENING OF THE 30N33W LOW PRESSURE CENTER DURING THE 
NEXT 72 HOURS. PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THESE FEATURES
IN THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 30N TO 33N BETWEEN 30W AND 32W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND OTHER POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE ELSEWHERE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 29W AND 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
IS ALONG 22N70W 27N64W BEYOND 32N58W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF THE 30N33W 23N40W 
TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS TO THE EAST OF THE 30N33W 23N40W 
TROUGH FROM 22N29W TO 28N24W BEYOND 32N22W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 19N64W 22N35W 23N22W 23N14W.

$$
MT