000
AXNT20 KNHC 160006
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 8N30W 10N50W 11N61W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 
15W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
42W-58W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR 
TRINIDAD ALONG 14N60W 8N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE ALONG 30N81W 27N83W 23N90W 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A GALE IS ALSO OVER THE W GULF 
OF MEXICO W OF 93W AND N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO 
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. 
EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA IN 12 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH A COOLER AIRMASS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF N OF 
THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER 
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR TRINIDAD WITH SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N70W. SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE 
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 
80W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE 
IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE 
TO THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 35N55W. A 10111 
MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 29N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE TROUGH N OF 27N BETWEEN 31W-35W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W. A TROUGH IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W. ZONAL FLOW 
IS E OF 30W. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N67W TO TO CENTRAL CUBA IN 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

$$
FORMOSA