000
AXNT20 KNHC 151155
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
911W 7N20W 7N30W 8N54W. A SURFACE TROUGH/POSSIBLE TROPICAL WAVE 
IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 7N TO 15N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE COAST
OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N BETWEEN 56W AND 61W. NUMEROUS STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 11W AND
12W...FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN
25W AND 29W...AND FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N
TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF
1N5W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 35W AND 48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL 
LOUISIANA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
25N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N85W 27N87W 24N92W
22N96W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ELSEWHERE NORTHWEST OF
30N80W 24N90W 19N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N83W
25N85W 24N87W. MORE DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE EAST AND 
SOUTHEAST OF THIS PRECIPITATION. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT THAT RUNS FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHEASTERN 
LOUISIANA THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TO MEXICO NEAR 26N101W BEYOND 32N107W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN FLORIDA FROM 29N TO 30N BETWEEN 82W AND
83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST 
OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EAST
OF 80W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON
TOP OF PUERTO RICO OR PRETTY CLOSE TO IT. A TROUGH RUNS FROM
THIS CENTER TO 16N71W TO 12N80W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 26N
BETWEEN 65W AND 74W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 83W.
THE EARLIERSURFACE TROUGH THAT WAS ALONG 24N68W 22N69W 19N69W
HAS BECOME INDISTINCT IN THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 15/0600 UTC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W IS ON TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH/ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN THAT COVERS THE AREA 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A DEEP LAYER 
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 27N48W TO 25N55W. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N38W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 26N76W 29N68W BEYOND 32N60W. SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 20N WEST OF
31N34W 26N38W SURFACE TROUGH. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N34W
TO 26N38W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N35W BEYOND 32N31W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS SOUTH OF 19N63W 21N57W 21N46W 21N36W
19N24W 13N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE 31N34W
26N38W TROUGH IS ALONG 26N30W BEYOND 32N24W.

$$
MT