000
AXNT20 KNHC 150536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT NOV 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
10N12W 6N20W 7N40W 10N55W 9N61W. A SURFACE TROUGH/POSSIBLE
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W FROM 7N TO 13N...MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. ANY PRECIPITATION CLOSE TO THE WAVE IS MIXED IN
WITH ITCZ PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 2N1W 2N9W 7N19W 6N25W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. SCATTERED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN
40W AND 43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN 
OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH TEXAS TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AT THE
GULF OF MEXICO COAST. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE GULF WATERS...AND IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT RUNS FROM EAST 
TEXAS TO WEST TEXAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND INTO 
MEXICO...AND THEN THE FRONT CURVES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE
FAR WEST TEXAS AND BEYOND. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
A 1007 MB SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N92W.
A SQUALL LINE HAD DEVELOPED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N84W 29N85W...AND THEN WITHIN 15 NM ON 
EITHER SIDE OF 29N85W 28N86W 26N90W 25N93W 23N95W. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WEST 
OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA EAST
OF 80W. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO 
RICO. A TROUGH RUNS FROM THIS CENTER TO 16N75W TO 12N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 65W AND 73W...AND IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 82W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N68W
22N69W 19N69W IN THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 70W NORTH OF 25N IS ON TOP OF THE 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN THAT
COVERS THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 24N37W TO 23N39W.
THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N38W
TO 31N41W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N37W TO 25N39W. STRONG 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE 
OF 28N37W BEYOND 32N33W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
SOUTH OF 21N60W 20N48W 20N36W 16N26W 11N20W.

$$
MT