000
AXNT20 KNHC 140555
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI NOV 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N12W 7N30W 10N40W 7N60W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 49W-54W AND 
WITHIN 45 NM OF 5N FROM 17W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 
32W-48W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING FROM ACROSS S TEXAS COVERING THE W GULF 
FROM 21N-29N W OF 94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND TEXAS. A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS S GEORGIA/SE 
ALABAMA INTO THE GULF OVER PENSACOLA FLORIDA EXTENDING ALONG 
28N89W TO A 1009 MB LOW OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR 27N96W WITH 
THE FRONT CONTINUING TO MENANDER S ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS 
AND MEXICO TO VERACRUZ. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW 
ALONG 25N96W TO 22N96W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE W OF A LIEN FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 25N92W TO 
THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN 
THE E GULF ALONG 86W FROM 24N-28N WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF A 
WEAK SURFACE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 
84W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY 
STABLE AIR COVERING THE SE GULF LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE 
AREA TRANQUIL TONIGHT.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
CENTRAL PANAMA COVERING THE AREA W OF 79W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE 
AXIS N ACROSS CUBA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND 
THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N64W ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 
INTO THE W ATLC GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 66W. UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE OVER THE S CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 
82W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/ 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR BUT ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS DOT MOST OF THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THE AXIS N 
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC W OF 76W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER 
THE NW ATLC ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED OVER 
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 12N-26N BETWEEN 
58W-75W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N62W TO 16N64W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-25N 
BETWEEN 58W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. A DEEP LAYERED 
TROUGH IS PUSHING S OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 24N FROM 
35W-55W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N PORTION OF 
THE REGION ALONG 32N48W 30N57W TO 31N62W. HOWEVER...WITH THE 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ONLY 
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A REMNANT 
SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 38W/39W FROM 22N-31N WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 
25N-30N BETWEEN 34W-37W. WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE 
ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N 
OF 25N E OF 30W ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. 

$$
WALLACE