000
AXNT20 KNHC 130557
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU NOV 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 7N25W 9N46W 6N58W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 9N19W TO 
11N22W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
60/75 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 23W-27W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES OVER W 
MEXICO DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE NW GULF 
WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N LOUISIANA ALONG MOST 
OF THE TEXAS COAST THEN INLAND TO NEAR LAREDO TEXAS. A 
PREFRONTAL TROUGH IS IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 29N93W TO 25N97W. 
BANDS OF SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO JUST S OF 
MATAMOROS MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER A BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE THAT IS ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. RETURN FLOW 
AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE W ATLC IS GIVING THE FAR E GULF 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 89W 
TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST SW OF 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 70W AND 
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CUBA COVERING PORTIONS OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC 
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES E OF 
64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/ 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER 
RIDGE OVER THE FAR S CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND 
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 
COSTA RICA. A WEAK SURFACE 1011 MB LOW REMAINS OFF THE S COAST 
OF CUBA NEAR 22N82W GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 
82W-85W TO INLAND OVER CUBA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS INTO THE W 
ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 23N81W N TO BEYOND 32N77W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF THE REGION ENTERING NEAR 
32N59W W ALONG 31N70W TO INLAND OVER GEORGIA JUST N OF THE 
FLORIDA BORDER. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO 
INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE AREA N OF 30N W OF 76W. AN UPPER LOW IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE W/CENTRAL ATLC 
CENTERED JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS COVERING THE AREA FROM 
10N-28N BETWEEN 55W-70W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 
24N57W TO 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 
20N-25N BETWEEN 54W-63W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-20N BETWEEN 57W-64W INCLUDING THE LESSER 
ANTILLES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E/CENTRAL N OF 22N FROM 
24W-40W WITH A SURFACE 1017 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N37W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE 
LOW FROM 26N-32N BETWEEN 31W-35W AND FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 
35W-37W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC 
ANCHORED S OF THE EQUATOR PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. 

$$
WALLACE