000
AXNT20 KNHC 112319
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 7N30W 8N45W 5N60W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 32W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OHIO NEAR 41N82W. A RIDGE AXIS 
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 
26N90W. FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS ARE 
10-15 KT OVER THE GULF WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER E 
TEXAS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 30N-32N 
BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 83W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF 
EXCEPT ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND 
FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. 
ALSO EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...W CUBA...AND 
FLORIDA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT 1011 MB LOW OF PALOMA IS AGAIN OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W 
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 12N-18N 
BETWEEN 70W-74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES 
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 60W-63W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER PANAMA 
AND COSTA RICA FROM 8-13N BETWEEN 80W-85W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 
18N84W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT THE 
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-74W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW OVER CUBA TO BEYOND N 
BAHAMAS ALONG 22N78W 26N77W 30N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
60 NM OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 25N50W 18N56W. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E 
OF THE CENTER FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 36W-37W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS
...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 72W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N68W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED 
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N50W. A THIRD UPPER 
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 30N37W. A LARGE RIDGE IS 
OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 35W.    

$$
FORMOSA