000
AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 6N27W 8N43W 5N56W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN 
30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF WHICH IS ANCHORED IN THE WRN 
CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN 
OVER THE GULF WITH A SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF AND 
FLORIDA PENINSULA E OF 94W. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE SE 
CONUS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. W OF 94W...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW 
IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT 
FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF LATE WED. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE N GULF 
COAST STATES PROVIDING SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS ACROSS 
MUCH OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER 
N/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N78W IS PROVIDING SE FLORIDA AND THE 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS E OF 81W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR 14N81W 
AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SW ATLC. THE ITCZ IN 
THE E PACIFIC REGION SKIRTS S OF PANAMA ALONG 7N GENERATING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
81W-84W. AT THE SURFACE...THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY 
FLOW WHILE THE ERN CARIBBEAN IS UNDER EASTERLY FLOW. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FOUND WITHIN 60 NM OF 
LINE FROM 11N66W 14N71W TO THE SRN COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
18N72W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS FAIRLY 
TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 
32N67W EXTENDING TO 30N73W WHERE IT BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH 
WHICH EXTENDS INTO A 1012 MB LOW OVER N/CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 
23N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OF THE BOUNDARY 
AND ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS 
INTO THE W ATLC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-75W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE SW ATLC WATERS FROM 20N-23N 
BETWEEN 68W-74W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N37W SW ALONG 20N49W CONTINUING S INTO 
THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N51W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N49W TO 
20N53W WITH A CUT OFF 1014 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N37W. 
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH AND E OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 25W-37W. A 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 28W. THIS 
UPPER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE 
ITCZ. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ATLC E OF 32W WITH 
SCATTERED MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE NE ATLC. 

$$
HUFFMAN