000
AXNT20 KNHC 110543
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N10W 7N29W 9N47W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE 
ITCZ FROM 32W-38W AND WITHIN 150/180 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 
31W-43W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN 
GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE 
OF A RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE N GULF 
ANCHORED JUST S OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE IS 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO AND THE N GULF AND 
COUPLED WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE IS GIVING THE 
THE FAR NW GULF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 
26N BETWEEN 93W-96W TO INLAND OVER E TEXAS. OTHERWISE THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS CLEAR TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
NEAR 13N71W AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION JUST S OF PANAMA 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N TO 
THE COAST OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W-83W. AT THE SURFACE...THE W 
CARIBBEAN IS UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE E CARIBBEAN IS UNDER 
EASTERLY FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE 
FROM JAMAICA SW TO W PANAMA AND WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N69W 
TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 18N71W. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN REMAINS TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W 
EXTENDING N OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO INLAND ACROSS S FLORIDA 
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH DIPS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 68W TO THE US E COAST. 
A 1010 MB LOW...REMNANTS OF PALOMA...IS ALONG THE N COAST OF 
CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N ACROSS THE 
BAHAMAS TO 26N76W BUT IS ONLY ABLE GENERATING LOW CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 29N W OF 75W AND S OF A LINE FROM 29N76W 
TO JUST ALONG THE COAST OF SE FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO 
THE UPPER KEYS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER 
THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W NE TO 
BEYOND 32N57W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM OFF 
THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N70W TO 
32N64W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
THROUGH 32N40W SW ALONG 24N47W INTO THE TROPICS TO AN UPPER LOW 
NEAR 16N53W CONTINUING S TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 
6N56W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 27N42W TO 18N54W WITH A CUT 
OFF 1015 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N37W. ISOLATED SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE SURFACE LOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE 
COVERS THE ENTIRE E ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 10N30W PROVIDING UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N51W TO 19N48W AS WELL AS MID/HIGH 
CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 
19N51W 26N35W OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF AFRICA 
NEAR 28N12W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE ATLC WITH A 
WEAKNESS IN THE AREA OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH. 

$$
WALLACE