000 AXNT20 KNHC 102342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON NOV 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 7N23W 9N36W 10N49W 9N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 32W-41W... WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PROPAGATING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF. STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE N GULF IN ADVANCE OF A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE W CONUS. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR GENERALLY COVERS THE GULF REGION...WITH SUBSIDENCE OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS GENERALLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF REGION. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM OVER S TEXAS AND S LOUISIANA IS SUPPORTING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 28N W OF 91W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF PALOMA IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. AT THE SAME TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N74W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SW ATLC. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...WHICH IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SW OF THE UPPER HIGH IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W OF 78W...AFFECTING COASTAL AREAS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF PALOMA IS ALONG THE ATLC COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW TO 27N75W TO 32N71W. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THESE FEATURES. FARTHER TO THE E...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 66W-74W. ALSO...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N74W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N62W TO 25N59W TO 32N54W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ADDITIONALLY...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO 20N57W TO 22N57W. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 5N57W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 16N51W TO 25N45W TO 32N41W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N37W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 13N60W TO 22N49W TO 27N42W...WITH ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 47W-51W AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 26N-28N BETWEEN 31W-36W. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 11N29W...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER HIGH TO 21N24W TO 29N22W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SW OF THE HIGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 32W-41W. ALSO...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N12W TO 4N13W TO 1N14W TO S OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 13W-16W. $$ COHEN