000 AXNT20 KNHC 092351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... PALOMA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 9/2100 UTC. AT THIS TIME...IT IS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 78.0W OR ABOUT 13 NM...25 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA DRIFTING NORTH...AND A SLOW GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...PALOMA OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD BE NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TOMORROW. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RAISED TO 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND PALOMA SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...STAYING OVER LAND FOR ALMOST A DAY...AND DRY STABLE AIR BEING ADVECTED INTO THE CIRCULATION FROM AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE CYCLONE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF LOW/MID CLOUDS SPINNING OVER THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 5N30W 5N40W 6N50W 6N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 20W-26W. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE SW COAST OF AFRICA OVER SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GUYANAS BUT PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN SURINAME. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THEN CROSSES JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CONTINUES NW TO THE DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AS A WARM FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONT...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE REGION. 10-15 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS BEGINNING TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ALOFT...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND THE WESTERN GULF. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 70-90 KT IS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF ADVECTING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC REGION. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.D. PALOMA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AFTER IT SEVERELY HIT THE COASTAL TOWN OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR ON THE EVE OF THE SEVENTY SIX ANNIVERSARY OF A SIMILAR EVENT THAT CAUSED THE DEATH OF 3000 PEOPLE MAINLY DUE TO THE STORM SURGE. REPORTS FROM WITHIN THE ISLAND OF CUBA INDICATED THAT THE STORM SURGE ENTERED ONE MILE OR ABOUT 1.5 KILOMETERS. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT PALOMA DESTROYED AROUND 400 FISHERMAN HOUSES IN SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN PALOMA AND HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING NLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA STARTING TONIGHT AS PALOMA SLOWLY MOVES NWD. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS CENTERED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 14N72W AND DOMINATES MUCH OF THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS ENHANCING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WEST OF 80W TO THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N72W THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 28N76W. AT THIS POINT...IT BECOMES STATIONARY CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC MAINLY S OF 27N AND W OF 70W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF AND THE RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS HELPING TO INDUCE THIS ACTIVITY. A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 19N52W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND UPPER- LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED LOW TO 15N58W WHERE A SWIRL OF LOW- LEVEL CLOUDS IS ALSO SEEN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF LINE FROM 13N53W TO 20N42W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH CONNECTS THIS SFC LOW WITH A SECOND ONE LOCATED N OF AREA NEAR 33N38W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO TO 31N57W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND DIPS INTO THE TROPICS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH ARE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW SITUATED NEAR 19N52W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 11N28W AND EXTENDS RIDGING NE ACROSS THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS. $$ GR