000 AXNT20 KNHC 091721 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA AT 09/1500 UTC IS NEAR 21.2N 77.9W...NEAR CAMAGUEY CUBA. PALOMA IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 2 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRONG SHEAR AND LAND EFFECTS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED THE STORM. MOST CONVECTION HAS RACED TO THE NE AWAY FROM THE CENTER. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND A REMNANT LOW IN 48 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 71W-75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN OVER E CUBA E OF 80W. ...THE ITCZ... THE AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N12W 6N30W 6N50W 6N57W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-9N BETWEEN 22W-30W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 25N80W 22N90W. THE FRONT CONTINUES W TO NE MEXICO AS A WARM FRONT TO 25N98W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E OF 82W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 15-20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO N OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS MOST OF THE GULF. A BAND OF UPPER MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER N MEXICO AND THE W GULF W OF 93W FROM 23N-30N. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING N WITH SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S.PALOMA IS WEAKENING OVER INLAND CUBA. SEE ABOVE. MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 79W-83W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 75W-77W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N72W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA. EXPECT PALOMA TO SLOWLY MOVE NE OVER E CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND PANAMA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC S OF 27N AND W OF 70W. TWO 1010 MB LOWS ARE OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC AT 20N52W AND 17N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 44W-52W. A 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 29N38W 21N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. A TROUGH IS N OF 5N BETWEEN 40W-55W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N27W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. EXPECT LIGHT CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N50W. $$ FORMOSA