000 AXNT20 KNHC 090554 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN NOV 09 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 09/0600 UTC IS NEAR 21.1N 77.6W...OR ABOUT 25 MILES/45 KM SOUTHEAST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. THE FORECAST IS FOR PALOMA TO BE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL CUBA LATE THIS MORNING...AND BE NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TONIGHT OR ON MONDAY. PALOMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 968 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... EVEN AFTER PALOMA MOVES OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON TOP OF CUBA SPREADING TOWARD THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA FROM 14N TO 19N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 8N20W 7N34W 9N45W 7N55W 8N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 24W AND 27W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE SAME DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. THE TROUGH NOW IS CONCENTRATED ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 30N80W TO TAMPA FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 23N99W. A THIN LINE OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS MARKS THIS FRONT EAST OF 90W...AND CLOUDS GO FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N71W ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BEYOND 23N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. HURRICANE PALOMA HAS CROSSED AND IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA...EMERGING INTO THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS BEING DRAWN TO THE NORTH BY THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 15N WEST OF 72W. ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS REMAIN SOUTH OF 12N WEST OF COLOMBIA... ALSO CLOSE TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 16N71W TO 23N70W BEYOND 32N66W JUST WEST OF BERMUDA. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 34N36W TO 29N40W TO 23N48W TO 17N55W AND 10N55W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO 26N40W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N52W TO 13N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N27W 23N40W 15N57W...AND FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS TO THE EAST OF THE 34N36W 10N55W TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 15N39W TO 27N27W BEYOND 33N23W. $$ MT