000 AXNT20 KNHC 090004 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... PALOMA THE SECOND STRONGEST ATLANTIC HURRICANE EVER NOTED IN NOVEMBER BEHIND LENNY OF 1999 MADE LANDFALL NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 MPH...200 KM/HR. AT 09/0000 UTC...IT IS CENTERED NEAR 20.8N 77.9W OR JUST EAST OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA MOVING NE AT 9 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS PALOMA MOVES ACROSS CUBA. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BE APPROACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST OF EAST-CENTRAL CUBA SUNDAY MORNING...AND BE NEARING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE SUNDAY OR ON MONDAY. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 968 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 105 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS MAY PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 5N30W 7N40W 9N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 20W-30W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM N AXIS BETWEEN 30W-34W...AND 140 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 40W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 24N90W. AT THIS POINT...THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDS MAINLY WWD TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY... PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER NE MEXICO BEHIND THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER SE TEXAS WITH A RIDGE DOMINATING THE NW QUADRANT OF THE GULF REGION. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE BLOWING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF WATERS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE PALOMA REACHES THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND WEAKEN OVER THE SE GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND HURRICANE PALOMA WILL RESULT IN INCREASING N TO NE WINDS OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUE. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS NLY WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE PALOMA WHICH MADE LANDFALL EARLY THIS EVENING NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR IN THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. SEVENTY SIX YEARS AGO...A POWERFUL AND DEADLY HURRICANE HIT THE SAME AREA. THIS WAS THE INFAMOUS 1932 CUBA HURRICANE. IT MADE LANDFALL IN EASTERN CUBA NEAR SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR LATER IN THE MORNING OF NOVEMBER 9 AS AT LEAST A CATEGORY 4 ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE KILLING UP TO 3000 PEOPLE MAINLY DUE TO THE STORM SURGE. THIS MADE IT ONE OF THE DEADLIEST HURRICANE OF THE 20TH CENTURY. CUBAN RADAR PRESENTLY INDICATES THAT EYE-WALL OF HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE SOUTH COAST OF CAMAGUEY WITH HEAVY RAIN COVERING MUCH OF THIS PROVINCE. THE CITY OF CAMAGUEY IS CURRENTLY REPORTING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 35 KT. PALOMA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF INCREASING VERTICAL WINDS AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE FACT THAT THREE MAJOR HURRICANES HIT CUBA THIS SEASON...GUSTAV...IKE AND PALOMA...WILL PROBABLY BE A NEW RECORD. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED ON A HIGH NEAR 15N72W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE BASIN ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC DIGGING INTO THE TROPICS IS HELPING TO INDUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SEEN OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST AREA. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. HURRICANE PALOMA CONTINUES TO TRACK NE ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 29N69W. FARTHER EAST...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N34W ALONG 23N41W TO A 1009 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 18N52W...THEN CONTINUES TO NEAR 13N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE TROUGH MAINLY BETWEEN 40W AND 47W AND AROUND THE SURFACE LOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ENHANCING THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE EXTENDS SW FROM A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 34N39W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N52W. THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LOCATED SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N28W AND EXTENDS RIDGING N TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W. $$ GR