000 AXNT20 KNHC 081803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 20.2N 78.8W AT 08/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 55 NM SW OF SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR AND ABOUT 90 NM SW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MOVING E-NE AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 120 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PALOMA IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 17N-24N BETWEEN 75W-81W. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP UNTIL LANDFALL IN CUBA LATE TONIGHT AND EMERGE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATE SUNDAY WITH IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE...AND LIFE- THREATENING STORM SURGE NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER OF PALOMA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N27W 10N50W 8N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 21W-33W AND FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 20W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE ERN CONUS EXTENDING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NE FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF FLORIDA SW TO 25N90W THEN TO 21N95W AND INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR TUXPAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF LIMITING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 25N. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER SE TEXAS NEAR HOUSTON TEXAS. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CLOUDINESS FROM HURRICANE PALOMA IS ACROSS THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N AND E OF 83W IN THE SE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS HURRICANE PALOMA AS IT NEARS CUBA...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N72W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE BASIN AND ENCOMPASSING PALOMA ENHANCING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 67W-75W REMAINS UNDER MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ACROSS ERN HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-22N ALONG 69W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN 63W-67W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS PANAMA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 11N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL THIS AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NWD ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N68W. HURRICANE PALOMA CONTINUES TO TRACK E-NE NEARING THE SRN COAST OF CUBA ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER HIGH WITH MULTILAYERED CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE W ATLC S OF 27N AND W OF 74W. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NORTH OF THIS AREA NEAR 29N74W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N61W EXTENDING SW TO NEAR 28N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 90 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF THE REGION CENTERED NEAR 35N39W AND EXTENDS TROUGHING SWD TO 10N BETWEEN 35W-57W. A 1005 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 32N36W TO 30N36W SW TO NEAR 23N45W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER TROUGHING IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N47W SW INTO A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 18N52W CONTINUING S TO NEAR 14N53W. LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 45W-52W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 10N28W AND EXTENDS RIDGING N TO BEYOND 32N25W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W-40W. $$ HUFFMAN