000 AXNT20 KNHC 081151 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 08/1200 UTC IS NEAR 19.7N 79.6W...OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF CAYMAN BRAC. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 110 MILES/175 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 165 MILES/265 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. PALOMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 943 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 22N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...FROM CUBA TO CAYMAN BRAC. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS JAMAICA. SOME COMPARATIVELY SMALLER AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE REACHING CUBA NOW. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM CUBA TO 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 12N TO JAMAICA BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 6N31W 9N51W 8N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 34W AND 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 13N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS THROUGH THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO 26N90W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W AND 22N101W. E TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 23N99W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N84W 25N90W 26N98W. DRY AIR ALSO IS SOUTHEAST OF 31N81W 25N90W 18N100W. SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE PALOMA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CUTS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PALOMA COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N69W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPINNING AWAY FROM HURRICANE PALOMA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W...FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE ITCZ ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 8N TO 10N...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N74W IN COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 16N TO 22N PASSING ON TOP OF THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 60W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N75W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE PALOMA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. ONE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 28N60W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. A SECOND DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 26N42W TO 16N48W TO THE GUYANA COAST NEAR 8N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF A STATIONARY FRONT...AND TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND TROUGHS. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 35N40W. A 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 30N36W AND 26N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N41W 26N34W BEYOND 32N31W. A SEPARATE 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N51W. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N46W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 13N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 16N54W 20N47W...AND WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N47W 16N45W 19N42W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT/TROUGH FEATURES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WEST OF 32N16W 10N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 14N38W TO 24N27W TO 29N22W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N18W. $$ MT