000 AXNT20 KNHC 080545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT NOV 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 08/0600 UTC IS NEAR 19.3N 80.5W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/80 KM EAST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 40 MILES/65 KM SOUTHWEST OF LITTLE CAYMAN. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 230 MILES/370 KM SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA. PALOMA IS MOVING NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES 8 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 962 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE CUBA COAST TO 24N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 85W AND 86W. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 5N33W 9N50W 8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 27N90W TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 23N99W. THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN/NORTHERN ILLINOIS BORDER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF 30N87W 27N90W 25N94W 25N101W. DRY AIR ALSO IS SOUTHEAST OF 30N85W 26N90W 19N100W. SOME UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE PALOMA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS CUTS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PALOMA COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... MOVING ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT THIS TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 17N71W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE SPINNING AWAY FROM HURRICANE PALOMA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS...NORTH OF 12N EAST OF 70W. MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA SOUTH OF 13N WEST OF 74W...FROM COLOMBIA TO PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W TO THE SOUTH OF HURRICANE PALOMA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 16N TO 24N PASSING ON TOP OF THE EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ARE NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 60W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N77W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HURRICANE PALOMA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS COVERS THE AREA FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 80W. ONE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 24N61W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 28N63W TO 26N64W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 23N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. A SECOND DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 35N38W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO 22N46W TO 13N48W TO THE GUYANA COAST NEAR 7N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE SCENARIO OF A STATIONARY FRONT...AND TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS AND TROUGHS. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY FRONT REACHES 34N42W. A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 31N39W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 22N47W. A SEPARATE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N51W. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N48W TO THE LOW CENTER TO 14N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 32N AND BEYOND BETWEEN 30W AND 43W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N38W 16N46W...AND FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE EAST OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT/TROUGH FEATURES UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WEST OF 32N16W 10N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 11N35W TO 21N28W TO 29N22W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N19W. $$ MT