000 AXNT20 KNHC 072357 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... HURRICANE PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 81.3W AT 07/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 70 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 290 MILES...465 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA MOVING NNE AT 5 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 967 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/ WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. AND FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY WITH PALOMA EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 80W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 78W-81W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 6N20W 6N35W 10N50W 6N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 24W-30W...FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 30W-35W...AND FROM EQ-06N BETWEEN 37W-42W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 36W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S ALABAMA TO S TEXAS ALONG 30N88W 27N92W 26N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO NE MEXICO ALONG 24N98W 23N99W. 15-20 KT NE SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED N OF THE FRONT OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 23N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... SW FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT ABOVE THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT THE SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO MOVE E INTO THE ATLANTIC. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PALOMA IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N65W TO BEYOND 20N68W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N TO BEYOND 20N BETWEEN 60W-68W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-11N BETWEEN 74W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE PALOMA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 15N70W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 13N AND E OF 67W. EXPECT... INTENSIFICATION AND SLOW NNE MOVEMENT FROM HURRICANE PALOMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N63W 26N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT. A 1007 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NW OF THE LOW FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 37W-39W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 21N48W 14N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 48W-51W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N35W 22N40W 19N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-31N BETWEEN 32W-35W...AND FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 39W-45W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-60W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA