000 AXNT20 KNHC 071203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 07/1200 UTC IS NEAR 18.1N 81.6W OR ABOUT 75 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 215 NM WEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. HURRICANE PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 981 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALSO...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17N83W TO 22N78W... AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N12W 6N22W 6N39W 5N48W 6N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 17W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 24W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 9N BETWEEN 30W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 37W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS ADVANCES EASTWARD. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS PROGRESSING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER THE NW GULF REGION. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W TO THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 29N96W TO S OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS NEAR 27N97W...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT FARTHER SOUTH FROM 27N97W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N99W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD AND STATIONARY FRONTS. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION IS GENERALLY PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION AREAWIDE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N84W. OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE E ACROSS THE N GULF. ALSO...ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE PALOMA...PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE HURRICANE PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 61W-66W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO 29N65W TO 32N65W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE PALOMA...PRESENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 61W-66W...AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 8N57W TO 16N45W TO 28N46W TO 32N40W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N41W...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N42W TO 32N45W TO NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. ADDITIONALLY... THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH FRONT EXTENDS FROM 16N49W TO 18N46W TO 20N43W. TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH... THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 27N35W TO 32N33W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 34N19W TO 25N27W TO 16N33W...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE E ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N17W TO 14N20W TO 8N30W. $$ COHEN