000 AXNT20 KNHC 070558 CCA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI NOV 07 2008 ...CORRECTED INFORMATION ON PALOMA IN SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION TO INDICATE UPGRADE FROM TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PALOMA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE PALOMA AT 07/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE PALOMA AT 07/0600 UTC IS NEAR 17.5N 81.8W OR ABOUT 110 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 230 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA. HURRICANE PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AT 7 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. HURRICANE PALOMA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 NM FROM THE CENTER OF PALOMA. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY AND PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...AND POSSIBLY REACH CATEGORY 3 INTENSITY BY SATURDAY. PALOMA IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY AND ON SATURDAY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 77W-84W...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E CUBA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N12W 4N22W 5N34W 8N48W 6N60W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 13W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 25W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 7N BETWEEN 29W-38W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 39W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A VIGOROUS DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS ADVANCES EASTWARD. A MID/UPPER-LEVEL WIND SPEED MAXIMUM IS PROGRESSING CYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...WHICH IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER THE NW GULF REGION. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TRAILS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM SW LOUISIANA NEAR 31N93W TO THE SE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N97W TO NE MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT IS ENHANCING ATMOSPHERIC LIFT ACROSS THE NW GULF REGION...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-91W. HOWEVER...THE PRESENCE OF DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION IS GENERALLY PREVENTING DEEP CONVECTION AREAWIDE...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INDUCING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE E GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. OVER THE NEXT DAY...THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING TO THE E OVER THE N GULF. ALSO...ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE PALOMA IS STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE PALOMA IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE HURRICANE PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 60W-66W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N67W TO 29N66W TO 32N66W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH SW OF HAITI NEAR 17N74W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 60W-66W...AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 10N60W TO 19N46W TO 28N46W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 32N42W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH FRONT EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO 20N43W. TO THE NE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 20N43W TO 25N36W TO 32N33W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N42W...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 32N43W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE SURFACE LOW. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 35N21W TO 23N28W TO 16N31W...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE E ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N16W TO 8N31W TO 2N43W. $$ COHEN