000 AXNT20 KNHC 070003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 81.8W AT 06/2100 UTC OR ABOUT 210 MILES...340 KM...SOUTH OF GRAND CAYMAN AND ABOUT 300 MILES...480 KM ...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA MOVING N AT 7 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTER OF PALOMA IS PRESENTLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO NOAA BUOY 42057. PALOMA IS FORECAST TO BE A HURRICANE TONIGHT. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 81W-85W...AND FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 78W-83W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N25W 8N45W 7N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 6W-9W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-8N BETWEEN 27W-36W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 39W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER S GEORGIA NEAR 32N82W IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER RIDGING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 10-15 KT SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF TEXAS MOVING E. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR N OF KEY WEST FLORIDA FROM 24N-25N BETWEEN 80W-82W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... WESTERLY FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO MOVE N TO CUBA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM T.S. PALOMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... T.S. PALOMA IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE AREA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH SPARSE CONVECTION. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 60W-68W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...BESIDES THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM T.S. PALOMA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED JUST S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 16N72W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 75W-88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT... INTENSIFICATION AND SLOW N MOVEMENT FROM T.S. PALOMA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W 24N69W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 60W-67W. A 1010 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N42W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION W OF THE LOW FROM 29N-31N BETWEEN 44W-46W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 22N47W 16N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 40W-47W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 40W-55W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 40W. $$ FORMOSA