000 AXNT20 KNHC 061755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST THU NOV 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS CENTERED NEAR 15.9N 81.9W AT 06/1800 UTC OR ABOUT 90 NM NE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 200 NM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MOVING NNW AT 6 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR TOMORROW. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 150/180 NM OF LINE FROM INLAND OVER HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 15N85W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 22N78W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N6W 5N19W 8N41W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE ITCZ TO 12N BETWEEN 40W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ ARE FROM 6W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP LAYERED LOW ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT PLAIN STATES EXTENDS A COLD FRONT ACROSS NE TEXAS TO NE MEXICO JUST N OF LAREDO TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MOSTLY DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STREAMING N OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 27N W OF 91W. THIS FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE GULF LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INCREASING AND THE FRONT EXITING THE GULF WATERS ON SUN. MOISTURE IS ON THE INCREASE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS WELL COMPLIMENTS OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IN THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF 25N E OF 83W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS. OTHER THAN ISOLATED/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS...THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL STORM PALOMA AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE INT HE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N75W DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH PALOMA AND PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MAINLY TO THE W. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W REMAINS DOMINATED BY MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IS PRODUCING ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 65W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N68W TO 25N70W AND A RE-ENFORCING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N75W. THE AREA OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS DOMINATED BY DRY STABLE AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 31N61W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W AND THE COLD FRONT. LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-54W. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N48W WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N36W S TO 26N36W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS REMAINS IN THE TROPICS FROM 20N47W S TO NEAR 10N50W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 23N45W TO 17N49W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FROM 16N-25N BETWEEN 36W-45W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS TO 30N AND E TO THE SHEAR AXIS FROM AFRICA ALONG 14N PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY DESCRIBED ABOVE. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 48W-65W AND OVER THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 30W...BOTH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE