000 AXNT20 KNHC 061154 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 06 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA AT 06/0900 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PALOMA AT 06/1200 UTC IS NEAR 15.3N 82.2W OR ABOUT 60 NM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER. TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 6 KT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND PALOMA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY. PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE N ON FRIDAY. ALSO...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER E HONDURAS...NE NICARAGUA... AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 13N-22N BETWEEN 77W-86W...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...W CUBA...E HONDURAS...AND NE NICARAGUA. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N22W 8N34W 6N44W 6N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 6N BETWEEN 9W-21W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 29W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...AS A VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF THE CONUS ADVANCES EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER SW GEORGIA NEAR 32N84W. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF REGION...WHERE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON PALOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 19N71W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. TO THE W OF THE HIGH...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ARE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W CARIBBEAN...WHERE TROPICAL STORM PALOMA IS ALSO PRESENT. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 61W-65W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE W ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W TO 29N73W TO 32N71W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TO THE E OF THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 23N70W TO 28N68W TO 32N68W TO N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N71W. THE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...SURFACE TROUGH...AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN 61W-65W...AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 6N55W TO 17N48W TO 27N46W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N41W AND EXTENDS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED AT 31N40W...WITH A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO 33N38W TO 30N36W TO 28N36W...RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 29N BETWEEN 33W-44W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO 18N49W TO 22N46W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN 40W-49W. FARTHER TO THE E...A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N19W TO 23N30W TO 15N32W...WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE BRINGING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE E ATLC. OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N16W TO 15N25W TO 8N35W...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS. $$ COHEN