000
AXNT20 KNHC 051744
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 05 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW IS IN THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N82W WITH SATELLITE 
IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING THAT A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION MAY BE FORMING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEARS 
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A 
DEPRESSION HAS FORMED. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO 
THE N OR NW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LARGE CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 
78W-84W INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF NICARAGUA AND NE 
HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 20N BETWEEN 73W-85W. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N10W 6N22W 7N49W 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N 
OF THE ITCZ FROM 13W-19W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ 
11W-15W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 
3N-10N BETWEEN 20W-32W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOST OF THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY AS SURFACE RIDGE 
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA EXTENDING FROM A 1022 MB HIGH 
OVER TENNESSEE TO OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE UPPER LEVELS ALSO CONTINUING TO 
DOMINATE THE GULF. HOWEVER...DENSE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 26N-29N E OF 
85W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING 
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SURFACE LOW IN THE CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
ABOVE. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE S CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N75W 
DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA AND ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE 
SPECIAL FEATURES. THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS DOMINATED BY 
MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY 
ACTIVITY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OVER THE VIRGIN AND LEEWARD 
ISLANDS. THIS AREA IS UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM GUADELOUPE ISLANDS TO 22N65W IN THE 
W ATLC. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM THAT REMAINS IN THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A 
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N70W ALONG 27N71W TO THE S 
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 22N74W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N67W 
TO 28N66W. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY STABLE AIR 
WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY. 
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER 
THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS 
HISPANIOLA TO 30N60W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO 
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA 
N OF 23N BETWEEN 60W-70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 38W-52W. A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1018 MB 
LOW IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH NEAR 30N41W WITH A 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 26N41W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS 
REMAINS IN THE TROPICS 20N37W SW ALONG 8N45W TO SOUTH AMERICA 
NEAR 3N51W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 21N46W TO 13N49W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH WITHIN 12O/150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N40W TO 19N48W. THE 
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 13N/14W FROM AFRICA TO 
THE SHEAR AXIS COVERING THE AREA S OF 30N AND AMPLIFYING A 
SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM NEAR 27N28W NW TO BEYOND 32N37W 
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM 
OF LINE FROM 24N34W TO BEYOND 32N36W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 45W-65W AND OVER THE E ATLC N 
OF 20N E OF 30W...BOTH ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. 
 
$$
WALLACE