000 AXNT20 KNHC 051139 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 05 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW E OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W TO 19N82W. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LOW AND TROUGH...COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N-21N BETWEEN 73W-84W. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR NORTH. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N20W 7N32W 7N38W 4N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 210 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 19W-30W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 34W-38W...WHICH IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E CONUS EXTENDS INTO THE NE GULF. OVER THE NW GULF...DEEP SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING E OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS LOCATED OVER THE S CENTRAL CONUS. ADDITIONALLY... SUBSIDENCE IS OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SE CONUS THAT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER W ALABAMA. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. THE COMBINATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS MAINTAINING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N74W...WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE W OF THE HIGH...AS WELL AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND A SURFACE LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH IN THE W CARIBBEAN...ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER TO THE E...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR E OF THE UPPER HIGH IS RESULTING IN GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE E CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND MOISTURE ARE APPROACHING FROM THE SW ATLC. THESE FACTORS ARE RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 60W-64W...WHICH ARE AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE E CONUS IS ENHANCING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT OVER PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC. ALSO...A SURFACE OCCLUDED FRONT INTERSECTS BOTH A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 32N72W. THE OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO 30N67W TO 28N65W...WITH SE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT N OF THE WARM FRONT. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO 27N72W TO 22N75W...WITH NW TO N WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT N OF 26N W OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS FURTHER ENHANCING THE DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT NEAR THE SURFACE FRONTS. AT THE SAME TIME...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN IS CIRCULATING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS THE SW ATLC AROUND THE UPPER HIGH IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N74W. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND DEEP MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 16N BETWEEN 60W-64W...AFFECTING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 4N46W TO 18N38W TO 32N43W AND EXTENDS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY TWO SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N49W TO 16N48W TO 20N46W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 13N-19N BETWEEN 39W-47W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N44W TO 28N42W TO 30N40W...WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 23N BETWEEN 34W-38W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N42W TO 32N40W AND EXTENDS NE OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. ALSO...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 45W-53W...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. ALSO...AN UPPER RIDGE IS PRESENT WITH AN AXIS THAT EXTENDS FROM 17N16W TO 25N22W TO 32N26W AND EXTENDS NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AS WELL AS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-25N BETWEEN 25W-30W $$ COHEN