000
AXNT20 KNHC 032356
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION   
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON NOV 03 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
IN THE W CARIBBEAN...A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW 
CENTER TO E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY N OF THE CENTER FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 
77W-83W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER 
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 6N30W 3N40W 3N51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-8N 
BETWEEN 10W-13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N 
BETWEEN 19W-22W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 23W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 28W-35W...AND FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 29W-33W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL WITH FAIR WEATHER AS A SURFACE 
RIDGE DOMINATES THE AREA. RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM VIRGINIA TO 
SE TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE TO E WINDS OVER THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...AND MEXICO. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE 
AREA. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH SPARSE PRECIPITATION. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA FROM 21N-22N 
BETWEEN 74W-77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND 
OVER W VENEZUELA AND E COLOMBIA FROM EQ-12N BETWEEN 67W-75W. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N68W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION WITH 
THE NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS NEAR 
26N76W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW TO 26N70W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES E TO 28N55W. A COLD FRONT ALSO 
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO E CUBA NEAR 22N76W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM 
25N-29N BETWEEN 70W-74W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
ALONG THE THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 63W-70W.   
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N45W 
26N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
ALONG 18N45W 9N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE 
TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W 
OF 50W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 30W-50W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E 
OF 30W.  

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FORMOSA