000 AXNT20 KNHC 031750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON NOV 03 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... IN THE W CARIBBEAN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA NEAR 20N78W JUST W OF JAMAICA TO A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N80W. BROAD MID LEVEL TURNING IS OBSERVED. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH S OF 20N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N7W 4N14W 6N28W 2N44W 3N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM ITCZ TO 10N BETWEEN 25W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE ITCZ FROM 10W-31W AND WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 31W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... GULF REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE AREA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO E TEXAS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE UPPER LEVELS WITH SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS DOTTING THE ENTIRE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N61W DOMINATES THE ENTIRE AREA ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES. THE E CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR LIMITING ANY ACTIVITY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... COMPLEX SURFACE SYSTEM IS OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1012 MB SURFACE LOW IS BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE TO 25N73W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 26N63W TO 32N48W...AND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SAME LOW NW T0 31N80W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 71W-75W. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY UPPER AIR IS MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE. THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC AND OVER THE W TROPICAL ATLC ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W ATLC FROM 22N-33N BETWEEN 64W AMD THE SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 27N50W NE TO 32N44W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THERE IS A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH IN THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM 21N27W TO 28N35W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS SEPARATES THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 20N42W SSW TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 16N45W TO 11N49W AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 12N FROM AFRICA TO 38W ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 26W-33W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 35W FROM 11N-16N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 13N. $$ WALLACE