000 AXNT20 KNHC 021747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N14W 8N26W 9N40W 8N50W 9N61W. ONCE AGAIN...TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. ONE TROUGH IS ALONG 28W/26W SOUTH OF 14N. THIS TROUGH COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS. AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS NEAR THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE SECOND TROUGH REMAINS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 16W. CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH BUT A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS IS SEEN ON VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR 12N. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 130 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 19W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SPINNING OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N86W WHERE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF REGION. A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS 80-90 KT CROSSES SOUTH FLORIDA AND CONTINUES MAINLY EAST ACROSS THE W ATLC. AT THE SURFACE... SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PREDOMINANT NE FLOW. THE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E ACROSS AREA THROUGH THU WHILE A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY... STRONG N TO NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E PACIFIC REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAIN FEATURE IS THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A 1010 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 SURFACE MAP NEAR 11N79.5W. SURFACE PRESSURE ARE SLIGHTLY FALLING IN THIS AREA AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN IN THE WIND FIELD FROM SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION COVERS FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 75W-83W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 13N65W AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS HELPING TO INDUCE ALL THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CLIMATOLOGICALLY THIS IS A FAVORED REGION FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. MUCH OF THE COMPUTER MODELS LIKE THIS AREA OF LOW PRES AND SUGGEST THAT A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY DEVELOP IN THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT DRIFTS NW THROUGH FRI. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS MAINLY NWD FROM THE LOW OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS OVER EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LINES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WRAPPING AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRES UNDER A NLY WIND FLOW. THESE WINDS ARE ALSO ADVECTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN ACROSS HONDURAS. LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE SEEN OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A SUBSIDENCE PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHICH IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FORECAST REGION NEAR 31N54W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM 29N75W TO 24N76W. MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY COVERS THE CENTRAL/SE BAHAMAS AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT N AND HELP SPAWN A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF BAHAMAS MON. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STALLED FRONT AND HIGH PRES OVER THE SE CONUS IS PRODUCING NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITHIN 360 NM N OF THE FRONT. A QSCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CONFIRMED THESE WINDS WHICH ARE ALSO TRANSPORTING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. DEPICTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST BUT PARTICULARLY N OF MELBOURNE. STRONG W-SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE W ATLC. FARTHER TO THE E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PRESENT WITH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE DEEP TROPICS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR 30N35W TO 9N50W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. FINALLY...A DEEP LAYER TROUGH REACHES THE MADEIRA AND CANARY ISLANDS AND IS SUPPORTING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS NW AFRICA ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 23N16W. THIS FRONT THEN CONTINUES MAINLY NW TO NEAR 30N36W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL ZONE WHILE NW WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN EAST-TO-WEST UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS BETWEEN THE AFRICAN COAST AND 35W AND IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. $$ GR