000 AXNT20 KNHC 020002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 8N13W 5N25W 13N46W 9N56W 9N61W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N IN LIBERIA TO 8N IN SIERRA LEONE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 10W AND 32W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 43W/44W FROM 10N TO 18N. THIS TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA NEAR 31N88W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF WATERS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA/BELIZE TO SOUTH CENTRAL HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN PANAMA. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT GALE WIND CONDITIONS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. EXPECT GALE WIND CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE ADVANCING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AROUND A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER/TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS BRUSHING UP AGAINST UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE AREA BETWEEN 65W AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW AND THE PRESENCE OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE HELPING TO GENERATE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE COMPARATIVELY COLDEST CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER FROM 10N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 80W AND 81.5W. STRONG CELLS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD...ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA... TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA JUST SOUTH OF THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. BROAD AND NOT PRONOUNCED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS MOSTLY EAST OF 70W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A TROUGH CONTINUES SOUTHWESTWARD... BEYOND THE WESTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 32N50W 28N56W 24N66W TO INTERIOR CUBA NEAR 21N78W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N37W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 20N45W TO 6N51W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 25N EAST OF 46W...TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE 30N37W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A TROUGH COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE 30N37W CYCLONIC CENTER AND TROUGH NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 25W. $$ MT