000
AXNT20 KNHC 011806
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT NOV 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 5N20W 13N47W 9N61W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF 
WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 3W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER W OFF THE COAST OF WEST 
AFRICA FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 6W-23W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE 
ITCZ FROM 15N44W TO 9N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS E OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 41W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1032 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 34N87W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THIS HIGH TO A 1028 MB HIGH OVER N 
MEXICO NEAR 27N102W. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO THUS HAS 10-15 KT 
NE SURFACE FLOW WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS. 
ADDITIONALLY...NE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING THROUGH THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE E 
PACIFIC REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE 
FROM 18N-22N BETWEEN 95W-98W...AND ALSO OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO AND FLORIDA FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 80W-88W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 
32N90W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 90W TO THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO 
EXCEPT FOR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND W CUBA. EXPECT...ISOLATED 
SHOWERS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 85W FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.        

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1010 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA NEAR 10N78W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 
76W-80W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO NICARAGUA ALONG 
20N75W 13N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 80W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S 
OF E CUBA FROM 17N-20N BETWEEN 74W-78W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE OVER PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 64W-68W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 
12N71W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E 
OF 70W. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N51W 
23N65W AND DISSIPATES TO E CUBA NEAR 20N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT HAS PASSED 
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS AND IS ALONG 32N8W 26N16W 26N23W 
32N30W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W 
OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
NEAR 30N35W. A TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N50W. 
A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC S OF 22N E OF 35W.  
 
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FORMOSA