000
AXNT20 KNHC 311027
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W S OF 17N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE 
CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE 
REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE W 
OF THE WAVE USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 7N18W 11N27W 9N34W 13N47W 
10N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 14N23W 
TO 8N25W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 13N22W TO 10N28W. A SECOND SURFACE 
TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 
11N-17N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 
15N-19N BETWEEN 38W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE FROM 10N31W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 5N45W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND CONTINUES OVER 
THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. ISOLATED/ 
SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF W OF 
87W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY 
A 1035 MB HIGH OVER NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER 
LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS. THE E 
GULF IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE 
AIR WHICH IS LIMITING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS 
THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER 
THE E JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO 
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST OF 
HONDURAS. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK E/W UPPER 
RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING 
THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 
14N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND NICARAGUA. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE 
USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH 
STATIONARY FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR 
32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 26N62W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS 
BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 120/150 NM E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE 
FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N62W 
TO 28N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. 
BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE COLD 
FRONT TO OFF THE US EAST COAST. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM NEAR W PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR 27N57W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH 
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM NEAR 25N50W INTO THE 
TROPICS TO NEAR 10N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 35W 
TO OVER NW AFRICA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 45W. THE 
UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING 
THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ITCZ. A 
SURFACE RIDGE IS AGAIN ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE ATLC BASIN N OF 
20N E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. 
  
$$
WALLACE