000 AXNT20 KNHC 310536 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W S OF 19N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE IS BECOMING LESS WELL DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED SHOWERS LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE W OF THE WAVE USHERED IN ON THE TRADE WINDS. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 9N25W 7N32W 11N43W 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ FROM 16N23W TO 8N27W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N19W 12N15W TO 10N29W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ IS ALONG 44W/45W FROM 11N-19N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 10N-19N W OF 39W TO THE TROUGH AND CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 46W-51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 175/200 NM OF LINE FROM 10N33W ACROSS THE ITCZ TO 5N41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE E US AND CONTINUES OVER THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 87W. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE S OF 28N W OF 86W WITH DENSE LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS BANKING OVER S MEXICO AND IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST S OF 21N W OF 94W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF HIGHS N OF THE REGION. THE REMAINDER OF THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE GULF ARE DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS PRODUCING A WEAK JETSTREAM WITH WINDS T0 90 KT WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 27N97W ALONG 26N90W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N821W. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE E JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A WEAK E/W UPPER RIDGE. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AND SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N FROM 79W-83W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE USHERED IN ON THE MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH STATIONARY FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE ENTERING THE ATLC NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 25N65W JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS BECOMING A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC JUST E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N64W ALONG 29N74W THEN NE TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE N OF THE COLD FRONT TO 80W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR 29N55W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N50W INTO THE TROPICS TO NEAR 10N56W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE E ATLC N OF 25N E OF 43W TO OVER NW AFRICA. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM OFF AFRICA ALONG 13N TO 45W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGHS AND ITCZ. $$ WALLACE