000 AXNT20 KNHC 301752 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W/69W FROM 11N-18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. AN INVERTED-V LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SIGNATURE IS OBSERVED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N73W THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE TO NEAR 20N67W NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 7N11W 8N21W 7N24W 10N41W 11N45W 8N60W. TWO SURFACE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...ONE ALONG 21W FROM 8N-14N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 19W-23W...THE SECOND IS ALONG 43W FROM 10N-16N WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 39W-47W. ELSEWHERE...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN 10W-16W AND FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 26W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 85W. ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW RESIDES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER IS OVER THE GULF S OF 27N E OF 92W WITH DENSE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHALLOW SHOWERS BANKING ALONG THE ERN MEXICO COAST AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SE CONUS TO ACROSS NE MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NRN ALABAMA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FAR NW HISPANIOLA TO OVER JAMAICA ENDING NEAR THE TIP OF THE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA BORDER. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 17N E OF 63W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 78W-85W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 55W WITH A WEAKENING JETSTREAM OF WINDS 60 TO 75 KT WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE FAR SRN FLORIDA COAST TO NEAR 32N65W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N71W EXTENDING TO NEAR 30N75W. A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT WITH STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ACCOMPANIES THIS FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SW TO E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS ALONG 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS RIDGE LIES FROM PUERTO RICO NE TO NEAR 32N50W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 27N46W SOUTHWARD INTO THE TROPICS NEAR 9N52W. MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE E ATLC N OF 13N. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 9N23W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 19N AND E OF 45W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS AIDING IN SUPPORTING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. $$ HUFFMAN