000 AXNT20 KNHC 300507 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W S OF 16W MOVING W 5-10 KT. NO INDICATION OF THE WAVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W 5-10 KT. MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS BUT NO INDICATION OF LOW LEVEL CURVATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N70W ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO 20N65W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 10N31W 11N39W 9N47W 8N60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 40W/41W FROM 8N-15N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11N. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 11N38W TO 13N41W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 37W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 27W-33W AND FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 43W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF 87W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF 25N WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER MOSITURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE OVER THE JAMAICA TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/ NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER OF THE FRONT. THE W CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 13N79W COVERING THE AREA W OF 75W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS UNDER EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 13N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 57W WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS 80 TO 95 KT FROM 25N-30N W OF 65W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING ALONG 25N62W TO 22N67W BECOMING STATIONARY JUST E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. NARROW UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED NEAR 22N62W EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N54W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N49W INTO THE TROPICS 10N58W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 23N E OF 30W TO OVER NW AFRICA WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH ENTERS THE E ATLC OVER THE S PORTION OF THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 22N16W ALONG 23N30W TO 29N40W. A STRONG E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N15W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 23N E OF 52W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE ITCZ. $$ WALLACE