000 AXNT20 KNHC 291028 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE W OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 48W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A WELL DEFINED INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 62W-66W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 9N28W 11N39W 10N53W 9N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 40W FROM 8N-14N WITH A 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 11N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 37W-39W AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 43W-45W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-12N BETWEEN 17W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLC CLIPPING THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE GULF S OF 28N W OF 83W WHILE THE FAR N GULF IS REMARKABLY CLEAR THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OVER S ARKANSAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY WESTERLY UPPER WINDS WHICH IS ADVECTING UPPER MOSITURE FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF MAINLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE E TIP OF CUBA OVER THE W TIP OF JAMAICA TO N HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W AND IS BECOMING NEAR STATIONARY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE FRONT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 16N. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N74W GIVING THE CARIBBEAN E OF 74W STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA AND WITH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION S OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF 62W WITH A JETSTREAM OF WINDS 90 TO 110 KT N OF 25N W OF 66W TO THE FLORIDA COAST. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION E OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N63W EXTENDING ALONG 25N68W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN OVER THE E TIP CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO 80W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W TO 23N55W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N51W TO 23N56W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N54W JUST TO THE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 24N E OF 28W TO OVER NW AFRICA WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NE ATLC OVER THE WESTERN SAHARA NEAR 27N14W S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 26N22W THEN NW TO 30N31W. A STRONG UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED SE OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N20W AND COVERS THE AREA S OF 26N E OF 51W. THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE AS WELL AS THE CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N BETWEEN 20W-58W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE TROUGH AND EASTERN COLD FRONT. $$ WALLACE