000 AXNT20 KNHC 271103 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 060 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING TOWARD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH. ITCZ SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE BUT PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FROM 10N TO 19N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W AND ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE APPARENT IN THE SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY. ...THE ITCZ... 8N12W 6N26W 9N42W 8N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 3N TO 13N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG THE AFRICA COAST FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 17W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS GIVING THE NECESSARY ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT TO A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N77W...THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AROUND WESTERN CUBA... INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 18N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N81W 22N85W 20N86W 18N87W. OTHER ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 83W AND 90W... AROUND AND/OR ON TOP OF NICARAGUA/EL SALVADOR/HONDURAS. THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS RECEIVING THE ARRIVAL OF A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BE READY FOR COMPARATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES. A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MINUS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVERYWHERE... EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...NORTH OF HONDURAS WEST OF 83W. A BIT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF PANAMA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER AND 90W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 70W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N45W TO 21N50W 15N54W TO TRINIDAD. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT STOPS AT 31N42W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N42W TO 26N43W TO 20N50W AND 19N59W. A LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC SWIRL IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH NEAR 19N59W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 49W AND 56W...AND FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 41W AND 42W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM NORTHERN ALGERIA TO MOROCCO AND WESTERN SAHARA...AND EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MAURITANIA. $$ MT