000
AXNT20 KNHC 262258
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND 
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE 
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE 
ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE / ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 
THE AXIS TO 36W FROM 9N-13N. 
 
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD 
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ON 
SATELLITE IMAGERY...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION IS INHIBITED DUE TO 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ALONG AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. 

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 10N13W 9N25W 9N35W 9N45W AND INTO 
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED 
WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
ARE ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-12N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 32W-37W FROM 5N-11N. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF FROM 
NEAR EVERGLADES CITY...FLORIDA TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE GULF SE 
OF THE FRONT INCLUDING THE STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA. N OF THE 
FRONT...NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLEAR 
CONDITIONS. A WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF 
THE LOUISIANA COAST. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE HIGH WAS CENTERED NEAR 
29N90W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM THE 
GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE SE MOVING 
ACROSS THE GULF IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE 
TO 20-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS THROUGH 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND WESTERN CUBA. ADDITIONAL 
SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERATED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AROUND AN 
UPPER HIGH ARE MOVING OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THE REMAINDER 
OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN OVER THE W ATLC BEHIND A 
COLD FRONT THAT...AS OF 2100 UTC...ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA 
NEAR 31N71W AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS AND 
CROSSES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR MIAMI. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY. A NARROW BUT DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC 
WITH THE ATTENDING SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...ALONG 
31N45W 24N47W 20N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. THE EAST ATLC IS 
DOMINATED BY A STABLE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1033 MB 
SFC HIGH OVER THE AZORES.

$$
WADDINGTON