000 AXNT20 KNHC 261744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W S OF 14N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC CURVATURE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 32W-39W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 51W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL SUBSIDENCE BUT BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE LOW- LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 63W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE 26/1200 UTC ANALYSIS MAP. MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND VERY DRY STABLE AIR AT ALL LEVELS HAVE DISSIPATED ANY DISCERNIBLE SIGNATURE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N15W 9N35W 8N39W 10N49W 10N52W 8N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE ERN US AND NRN GULF BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA N OF LINE FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN OVER ERN CUBA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE FAR SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR 25N81W THEN SW TO THE NE TIP OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SE GULF FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 82W-85W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER SERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS RIDGE CONTROLS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH LIGHT N-NE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 63W AND IS ANCHORED ACROSS ERN CUBA EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS OVER ERN HONDURAS AND ERN NICARAGUA FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 82W-85W. A SIMILAR AREA OF POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N E OF 64W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 77W AND ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO IN THE NE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING S-SW TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 55W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N48W TO 17N51W THEN AS A WEAK SHEAR AXIS W INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 24N47W TO 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 20N. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 37W IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 22N FROM 50W-68W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 25N30W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER W AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 38W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES. $$ HUFFMAN