000 AXNT20 KNHC 261019 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 24W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 41W WAS RELOCATED ALONG 50W S OF 16N BASED ON LONG TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DRY STABLE AIR BUT WITH BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 5 KT. THE NORTH PORTION OF THE WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION IS UNDER UPPER DIFFLUENCE. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 13N16W 10N24W 9N41W 11N51W 10N62W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 21W-31W AND FROM 8N-15N BETWEEN 31W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND N GULF BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE AREA N OF LINE FROM CEDAR KEY FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA/ MISSISSIPPI. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER DEW POINTS. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST N OF GRENADA TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N81W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N87W AND OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF THE SHEAR AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N W OF 76W. THE ITCZ CROSSES THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA TO COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS INLAND AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N76W EXTENDING S ALONG 25N79W THEN W ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 57W AND PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W TO 20N49W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES JUST N OF GRENADA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N45W ALONG 25N47W TO 21N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM THE SURFACE TROUGH E OF 52W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 50W-75W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N32W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING S OVER THE W AFRICA E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NARROWING THE UPPER RIDGE BETWEEN ALONG 22W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE