000 AXNT20 KNHC 260529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH A BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 25W-31W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 14N29W TO 12N34W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W S OF 12N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WEAK AND NARROW INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 4N40W TO 5N43W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 15N MOVING W 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY/STABLE AIR THUS LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 8N25W 7N45W 9N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ FROM 35W-37W WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER THE AREA FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 16W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E US AND NW GULF BRINGING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR TO THE AREA W OF LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE GULF NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA TO N COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N88W WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED/HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE GULF WATERS AND OVER S FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE GULF HONDURAS EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NE ACROSS CUBA INTO THE W ATLC AND COVERING MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR ST. LUCIA TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN NW OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N82W TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 19N88W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS MAINLY IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N77W EXTENDING S ALONG 27N79W THEN W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-29N W OF 74W TO OVER S FLORIDA. A NARROW DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N52W TO 21N50W THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS W INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR ST. LUCIA. THE DISSIPATING ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W EXTENDING ALONG 23N52W TO 21N68W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N47W TO 19N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 21N49W TO BEYOND 32N43W. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N FROM 50W-75W. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 24N32W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E TO 27N E OF 28W TO OVER W AFRICA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE