000 AXNT20 KNHC 251756 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 12N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 24W-32W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W S OF 11N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH UPPER TROUGHING ACROSS THE ERN ATLC AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH IS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 61W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. THIS ILL-DEFINED WAVE IS MOVING BENEATH AN AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE THUS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N15W 6N26W 5N29W 6N37W 7N41W 11N59W. ASIDE FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N BETWEEN 20W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS ACROSS THE ERN US INTO THE W ATLC WHILE THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA TO 25N86W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO 21N90W WHICH IS WEST OF A 1012 MB LOW OFF THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED TSTMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND SE GULF... INCLUDING FAR WRN CUBA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE WRN GULF IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF BY LATE SUN/EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED JUST NW OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS NEAR 19N79W EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND INTO THE W ATLC. WEAK UPPER TROUGHING EXTENDS INTO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 21N E OF 86W TO OVER WRN CUBA. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND ERN NICARAGUA INCLUDING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N-18N W OF 81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND ERN HISPANIOLA USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 60W AND IS PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 28N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W-78W. GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N AND W OF 74W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N51W ALONG 19N54W THEN SW INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N44W AND EXTENDS ALONG 26N50W TO 22N59W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 21N70W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N50W TO 18N54W. A LOWER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THIS TROUGH NEAR 20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A SURFACE RIDGE HAS BRIDGED THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING S TO BERMUDA THEN SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO 21N76W AND ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER TROUGH ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 22N31W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E TO 25N E OF 20W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 17N E OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH E OF THE AZORES. $$ HUFFMAN