000 AXNT20 KNHC 250535 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24W S OF 13N MOVING W 15 KT. A LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 21W-27W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 13N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRY AIR WHICH IS LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. WAVE IS LOSING ITS IDENTITY MOVING BENEATH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND VERY DRY AIR LIMITING ANY SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 6N18W 3N29W 7N47W 9N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 25W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE E US TO THE N GULF COAST WHILE MOST OF THE GULF WATERS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE E GULF TO 27N85W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO A SECOND 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE NE COAST OF THE YUCATAN NEAR 22N87W. DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING UPPER MOSITURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF HIGH CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE GULF LATE SUN/EARLY MORN. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADELOUPE TO THE ABC ISLANDS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 20N W OF 77W TO OVER CUBA AND THE YUCATAN AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N73W TO NICARAGUA NEAR 14N83W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS USHERED IN ON MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLC W OF 65W AND PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM 32N62W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 28N W OF 75W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N55W ALONG 21N55W THEN SW INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR GUADALUPE. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N47W EXTENDING ALONG 25N55W TO 23N64W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 26N76W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N48W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W TO BEYOND 32N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO BRIDGE THE FRONT COVERING THE AREA N OF 22N BETWEEN 55W-78W AN ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E ENHANCING THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 19N32W AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE E TO 23N E OF 25W. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC N OF 15N E OF 45W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST SE OF THE AZORES. $$ WALLACE