000 AXNT20 KNHC 242349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 12N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. CIMSS TPW PRODUCT REVEALS A MOISTURE SURGE ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. A LOW AMPLITUDE INVERTED-V CLOUD PATTERN IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE / ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS N OF 8N BETWEEN 19W-28W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 34W/35W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 19N MOVING W NEAR 5 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS FROM 12N-17N. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 8N20W 6N30W 6N40W 11N56W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE SOUTH OF THE AXIS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 26W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN IN THE EASTERN GULF THIS EVENING. AS OF 2100 UTC...THE LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N84W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 29N83W 26N85W 23N87W TO ANOTHER SFC LOW NEAR 22N87W. MULTI- LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS COVER THE ERN GULF AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF THE COLD FRONT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT COVER THE EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT TO 85W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. MID-UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS IN THE AREA AND E-NE WINDS 10-15 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1012 MB SFC LOW NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A SFC TROUGH FROM 22N87W ALONG 19N87W TO 17N88W. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 17N83W CONTINUES TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 14N W OF 80W. THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ARE FREE OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT. EASTERLY TRADES 15-20 KT COVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1010 MB SFC LOW OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EXTENDS A WARM THROUGH GEORGIA AND INTO THE W ATLC JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE W ATLC N OF 29N BETWEEN 75W-79W. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO BELOW GALE FORCE WITHIN 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ON NWS DOPPLER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLC W OF 75W AND N OF 25N. A BROAD SFC RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC BETWEEN 56W-80W. A 1009 SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS E OF THIS RIDGE NEAR 31N50W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 26N56W TO 24N64W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND CONTINUES ALONG 24N70W TO 28N77W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N51W TO 22N54W. SHALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WITHIN 100 NM OF THE SFC TROUGH N OF 24N. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES...COVERING THE ATLC E OF 43W. $$ WADDINGTON