000 AXNT20 KNHC 241107 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A PERSISTENT 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 18N89W IN NORTHERN BELIZE. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN SOME FORM HAS BEEN PRESENT IN THE AREA OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA/ THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE/THE GULF OF HONDURAS/THE INLAND HONDURAS AREA SINCE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN MADE LANDFALL IN AND DISSIPATED IN INTERIOR HONDURAS ON 16 OCTOBER 2008. RAIN HAS BEEN FALLING IN HONDURAS AND NEIGHBORING AREAS DURING MUCH OF THE LAST TEN DAYS OR SO. MUDSLIDES HAVE OCCURRED. THE MAJOR RIVERS HAVE FLOODED OVER THEIR BANKS. NEWS MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT ABOUT 200,000 RESIDENTS IN HONDURAS HAVE SUFFERED DAMAGE TO PROPERTY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO COVER THE AREA FROM THE COASTAL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AREAS OF GUATEMALA TO NORTHEASTERN GUATEMALA...TO BELIZE...AND OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 20N PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W IN WESTERN CUBA AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...EVEN REACHING SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE DIRECTION OF POSSIBLY BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18W/19W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 10 KT. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS NEARBY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 KT. IT DID NOT APPEAR TO MOVE MUCH IF ANY DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 22N53W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 57W AND 62W...AND UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN BETWEEN TWO ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGHS...FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN 47W AND 60W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 20N PASSING THROUGH HONDURAS AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BETWEEN 82W IN WESTERN CUBA AND 90W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA BETWEEN 76W AND 83W...EVEN REACHING SOUTHEASTERN COSTA RICA...MOST PROBABLY WITH THE ITCZ. ...THE ITCZ... 7N12W 7N30W 10N50W 10N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 23W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 1N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL U.S.A. ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...AND REACHES THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 18.5N 93.5W. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS BEHIND THIS FRONT AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27.5N89W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 29N86W...PASSING OVER FLORIDA TO 27N78W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. STRONG SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 81W AND 83W APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD RAPIDLY LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WATERS AND NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY...AND IT WILL BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND MERGE WITH THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE DEVELOPED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ALREADY. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA WEST OF 65W. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 16N81W. THE 87W/88W TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE BASE OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W. IT APPEARS THAT DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE ALREADY HAS BEEN EXISTING IN PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 65W. MORE SUCH DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE COMPARATIVELY NEWER AREA OF DRY AIR IS NORTH OF 13N EAST OF 67W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NORTH OF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA APPEAR TO BE RELATED TO THE ITCZ. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PROVIDING THE ATMOSPHERIC SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N60W TO 27N78W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 27N78W TO FLORIDA NEAR 28N82W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 32N53W 20N69W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N54W 22N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N53W 28N51W BEYOND 32N49W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N49W TO 22N53W INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N63W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS OUT ON TOP OF MOROCCO...INTO THE WESTERN SAHARA...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 20N25W TO 18N30W TO 10N44W. $$ MT