000 AXNT20 KNHC 231819 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W/29W S OF 14N MOVING W 5-10 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT DEPICTS A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION PRESENT NEAR WAVE AXIS. DEEP LAYER DRY AIR IS GENERALLY SUPPRESSING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. HOWEVER...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE ITCZ FROM 2N-9N BETWEEN 23W-30W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 22N MOVING W 5-10 KT. CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD BY UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 49W-52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 48W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS ALSO W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 57W-63W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 84W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AS WELL AS A MAXIMUM IN LOW LEVEL COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION BASED ON CIMSS WAVETRAK PRODUCT. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN 79W-87W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N30W 11N55W 10N62W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 3N-11N BETWEEN 11W-17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 34W-38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N91W 24N98W 24N102W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N91W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF FROM 22N-25N BETWEEN 80W-88W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PREVAILS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO BE OVER THE N FLORIDA IN 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY...STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BLOW THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND PRODUCE GALE FORCE GAP WINDS INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC REGION BY 0000 UTC FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND ANOTHER IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SEE ABOVE. NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS NOTED OUTSIDE OF THE TROPICAL WAVES. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 19N85W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE SEA. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W. FAIR SKIES ARE E OF 75W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE SLOWLY W AND BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER PRODUCERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N61W 29N70W 29N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N52W 25N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 48W-53W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N23W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. A TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 25N53W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC S OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 20N32W. $$ FORMOSA