000 AXNT20 KNHC 190004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NONE. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 32W-38W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WEAK INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 8N11W 7N20W 11N36W 9N45W 11N56W 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W MOVING W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 28W-32W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 25N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 21N92W 18N92W. N OF FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE N AT 15-20 KT. S OF FRONT WINDS ARE FROM THE S AT 5-10 KT. NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE ENTERING THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC PRODUCING GALE FORCE GAP WINDS THAT ARE EXITING TO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN...S MEXICO...AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN 80W-84W. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH DRY/STABLE AIR PRODUCING CLEAR SKIES OVER THE N GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS PRODUCING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF EXCEPT WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. EXPECT THE FRONT TO EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 83W-88W. ANOTHER 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N77W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS LOW. ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS...AND IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 81W-83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 72W-76W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N86W. THE BASE OF A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W PRODUCING MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W...AND IS OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA S OF 13N. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N76W AND EXTENDS SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 29N80W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. A 1018 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N65W. THE REMNANTS OF OMAR ARE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N51W WITH 1005 MB MOVING NE FURTHER OUT OF THE AREA. A 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N31W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N63W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 21N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 16N43W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 14N26W. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLAND E OF 30W N OF 20N. $$ FORMOSA