000 AXNT20 KNHC 172353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI OCT 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... OMAR WAS UPGRADED BACK TO A HURRICANE AT 17/2100 UTC. OMAR IS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 53.6W OR ABOUT 660 MILES...1065 KM... EAST OF BERMUDA AND ABOUT 1580 MILES...2540 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES MOVING NNE OR 030 DEG AT 25 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. OMAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING OCCURRING ON SATURDAY. PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT5/ WTNT35 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. OMAR WILL MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND UNDER MUCH STRONGER SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS ALREADY DIMINISHING NEAR OMAR'S CENTER PARTIALLY DUE TO ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 52W-55W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP VERY WELL ON THE TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS WHERE A NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS SEEN. WELL-DEFINED CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A VERY LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 5N-15N BETWEEN 22W-32W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS OBSERVED ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT FROM CIMSS AND REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 52W-54W. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 7N20W 10N31W 7N40W 10N52W 9N60W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W...AND FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 38W-43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 30N90W 26N95W 22N98W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES OVER MEXICO ALONG 22N102W 29N108W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS NE TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS. CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MAINLY INLAND OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. ANOTHER 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN 73W-75W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N87W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN S OF 18N. EXPECT CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE CARIBBEAN S OF 20N OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. HURRICANE OMAR IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC MOVING OUT OF THE AREA. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N30W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 26N43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N66W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NEAR HURRICANE OMAR AT 30N53W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N46W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 17N37W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC AND W AFRICA E OF 30W AND S OF 23N. THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE CANARY ISLAND E OF 25N N OF 25N. $$ FORMOSA